An “independent review” ordered by the UK government has dismissed the claim that restricting access to puberty blockers increases suicidal risk in young trans people. This report comes only a few months after the government sponsored Cass Review recommended restrictions on puberty blockers in the NHS.

The review was commissioned in response to allegations made by nonprofit campaign organization the Good Law Project. In June, the nonprofit reported that the 2020 ​​Bell v Tavistock court ruling (which restricted gender affirming care) had led to a “rise” in trans youth suicides—citing two whistleblowers in addition to publicly available data.

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In the wake of the ruling, the NHS put a halt on referrals for puberty blockers in the Tavistock Gender Identity Development Service (GIDS, which are dedicated centers for trans minors in the UK.) Although the court ruling was later overturned, the NHS kept those restrictions. Good Law Project said that 1 patient on the GIDS waitlist committed suicide in the 7 years. 3 years later, that figure had allegedly jumped to 16.

Now a review led by professor Louis Appleby, head of National Suicide Prevention Strategy for England, has denied the accuracy of these figures. Appleby reviewed suicide rates among “current and former GIDS patients” and said that “in the 3 years leading up to 2020-21, there were 5 suicides, compared to 7 in the 3 years after.”

In a thread, Good Law Project director Jo Maugham called these numbers into question (while noting that the nonprofit was still putting together a formal statement since they were blindsided by the review). First, Maugham said that “it is absolutely true that they have better data.” That’s why they originally sought that data through a Freedom of Information Act request, which he said was “rebuffed.”

But more importantly, Maugham pointed out a glaring omission in the review. The original statistics concerned trans youth on the clinic waitlist, who represent a far larger sample size than “current and former patients.” The waitlist for a GIDS appointment can be more than five years.

Appleby’s review went beyond the Tavistock clinic to claim that all evidence linking suicide risk and gender dysphoria is “generally poor” and “methodologically weak” because it’s “based on online surveys and self-selected samples, and coming from biased sources.”

Appleby made the same claim months before a review of the evidence had been commissioned.

Access to puberty blockers has become more imperiled than ever in the UK since the Cass Review recommended restrictions up to the age of 25—well after puberty. In addition, the newly elected prime minister, Keir Starmer, has signaled that he will enact restrictions for trans healthcare.

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